PJM Capacity Auction Results: New Generation and Uprates
PJM's 2028/2029 auction cleared about 525 MW UCAP of new generation and uprates, but remained 6,831 MW below its reliability requirement.
The PJM capacity auction results for the 2028/2029 delivery year show a supply shortfall even at the FERC-approved $325/MW-day price cap. PJM procured 138,317.8 MW of unforced capacity, or UCAP. Including 10,863.8 MW of Fixed Resource Requirement commitments, total committed supply was 149,181.6 MW UCAP, still 6,831.3 MW below the reliability requirement. New generation and uprates contributed 524.7 MW UCAP.
That is a capacity commitment for a future delivery year. It is not a count of equipment orders or completed construction. For municipal and cooperative buyers, the useful question is which projects will meet the remaining need, where they will connect, and when their equipment purchases will overlap with yours.
What the PJM capacity auction results actually say
PJM’s results report identifies 317.1 MW UCAP of new generation and 207.6 MW UCAP of uprates. The combined figure rounds to 525 MW. Calling this “no new supply” would erase capacity the auction did procure. Accredited capacity is not a measure of new steel or physical equipment.
PJM’s simulation without the cap and floor cleared the RTO at $554.72/MW-day and the ComEd zone at $776.69/MW-day. Those are simulated prices, not the actual auction clearing price. The report puts actual cleared supply times clearing price at $16.4 billion, against $29.7 billion in the simulation. PJM explicitly cautions that the $16.4 billion is not a total cost to load: load hedged through self-supply or bilateral contracts is not exposed to auction clearing prices.
What the shortfall can tell a buyer
The shortfall gives buyers a reason to follow capacity additions and procurement decisions. It does not isolate the cause of limited entry. The results cannot establish that the capacity payment is no longer a constraint, or that transformer lead times alone explain the outcome. Project economics, approvals and delivery schedules need project-specific evidence.
Start with the projects serving your load area. For each proposed resource, establish its connection point and voltage, interconnection status, expected service date and committed equipment scope. A utility generation project may connect to transmission. A behind-the-meter installation or distributed resource may need distribution upgrades. Neither the auction result nor the label “self-build” determines which transformers, switchgear or protection equipment will be ordered.
Use the auction as a reason to update that project list, then base purchase decisions on the actual scope. Avoid converting a regional capacity gap directly into a forecast for pad-mount transformers or medium-voltage switchgear.
The reliability backstop is a separate procurement
PJM filed its Reliability Backstop Procurement at FERC on July 31, 2026 in ER26-3380. FERC’s September 29 order accepted it for filing but suspended it for five months, to February 28, 2027, subject to refund, and set a paper hearing on cost allocation, transmission-owner exit provisions and load-serving-entity collateral. The proposed fall 2026 window therefore did not proceed on that schedule. An accepted filing is not an awarded project or an equipment order.
The backstop’s proposed $555/MW-day limit is also different from the $554.72/MW-day no-cap auction simulation. The filing applies its limit to the MW-weighted average levelized cost of selected offers, rather than imposing a hard cap on each offer. Keep the auction simulation, backstop terms and any eventual awards separate when briefing a procurement team.
A separate filing, ER26-3515-000, proposed a curtailment service and a registry covering existing and new Large Loads. FERC rejected the curtailment service on October 9, 2026 and accepted the Large Load definition and registry. The rejected New Large Load definition did not survive with them. The PJM large-load rule article explains the distinction.
FERC’s July 23, 2026 governance conference is already past. Its event notice is background, not an upcoming procurement deadline or evidence that a particular market redesign has taken effect.
The procurement read
Track resource awards, interconnection milestones and vendor commitments before reserving equipment against an assumed response to the shortfall. The earlier auction preview and the interconnection queue analysis provide context; neither replaces a project schedule.
The Feeder, our free weekly briefing, covers the tariff, interconnection and supply developments relevant to those decisions. Subscribe to The Feeder.
Related Reading
- PJM 2028/2029 Capacity Auction: The Procurement Read
- PJM’s Interconnection Queue and Equipment Demand
- Hyperscaler-Owned Generation and Procurement
Frequently Asked Questions
What were the PJM 2028/2029 capacity auction results?
The Base Residual Auction cleared at the FERC-approved price cap of $325/MW-day (results announced July 14, 2026). It procured 138,317.8 MW UCAP. Including 10,863.8 MW of Fixed Resource Requirement commitments, total committed supply remained 6,831.3 MW below the reliability requirement. New generation and uprates contributed 524.7 MW UCAP in the auction. PJM's results report puts cleared supply times clearing price at $16.4 billion, and notes that figure is not a total cost to load.
What is the PJM reliability backstop procurement?
It is a one-time procurement of new capacity that PJM filed at FERC on July 31, 2026 in docket ER26-3380. On September 29, 2026, FERC accepted it for filing but suspended it until February 28, 2027, subject to refund, and set a paper hearing on several provisions, so no auction date is currently fixed. Buyers can track any resulting awards and project schedules before estimating the equipment needed.
How much new generation cleared the PJM auction?
PJM reports 317.1 MW UCAP of new generation and 207.6 MW UCAP of uprates, about 525 MW combined. UCAP is accredited capacity, not equipment nameplate capacity or a measure of construction completed. The result alone does not establish whether price, project approvals or equipment availability was the binding constraint.
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